Price cut for Surface RT

Microsoft might not be seeing the sales numbers it hoped to for its Surface RT, because according to The Verge, it's readying substantial price cuts across its debut tablet. In short, the cheapest option (a 32GB Surface RT) could reach $350, while adding a Touch Cover will land at $100 more to $450. Doubling storage to 64GB will cost $450, while another hundred bucks will add a Touch Cover there. We've been in touch with Microsoft, who told us that it "doesn't comment on rumor and speculation," so it's certainly not set in stone. We'll let you know when we see an official confirmation.

Microsoft: Dell, Lenovo and Samsung Windows RT machines are coming

Microsoft isn't the only OEM that will be delivering a Windows on ARM tablet/PC. Asus, Dell, Lenovo and Samsung all have Windows RT systems coming to market, too, Microsoft officials said in an August 13 blog post on the "Building Windows 8" blog.

When I asked Microsoft officials back in late June for a list of vendors making Windows RT tablets and PCs, they declined to provide one. But as I noted at that time, Asus, Toshiba and Acer had all announced plans to provide Windows RT devices. Dell was rumored to be making a Windows RT machine, as well. Last week, ABCNews reported that Lenovo would be making two versions of its IdeaPad Yoga convertible machine: One running Windows 8 and one running Windows RT.

"You will need to stay tuned for more details; PC manufacturers will be unveiling their products as we approach the Windows 8 and Windows RT launch," said Mike Angiulo, the vice president of our Ecosystem and Planning team, and author of today's blog post. (We know Microsoft is planning to have its Surface RT system available on October 26, but we do not know exact dates for the other OEMs.)

Microsoft officials also wouldn't comment on whether Windows RT had released to manufacturing (RTM'd) when Windows 8 did on August 1. But Microsoft officially is acknowledging Windows RT also has RTM'd, thanks to a mention in today's blog post.

In today's post, Microsoft also shared some rough guidelines about battery life expectations for Windows RT machines. When a Windows RT PC is not in use (on connected standby), it will not require a battery charge for days, Angiulo said. He also mentioned Windows RT machines' ability to deliver "all day battery life" on "thin and light" machines. More specifically, he said Microsoft has seen 8 hours to 13 hours of HD video playback time on Windows RT PCXs, and 320 hours to 409 hours (more than 13 to 17 days) battery life when in connected-standby mode.

Anguilo said Microsoft and partners built "thousands of reference design hardware systems" and seeded more than 1,500 Windows RT reference machines to software and hardware vendor partners to prepare for launch. He also said Microsoft has found more than 90 percent of the RTM applications in the Windows Store support Windows RT, and that there will be printers, webcams and mobile broadband modules certified for Windows RT.
Here's a photo provided by Microsoft of a prototype Windows RT system next to an actual, ready-to-ship model:

Microsoft's new blog post also repeated some facts about the upcoming Windows RT operating system that Microsoft previously divulged, but which are worth repeating. Windows RT includes a "siginificant amount" of shared code with Windows 8, but is not identical to it. There is one Windows RT binary that supports Windows RT SoC platforms from NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and Texas Instruments. Windows RT software will not be sold or distributed independent of a new Windows RT PC; it will be preloaded only.

Lenovo 'fine' with Surface; aims ThinkPad Tablet 2 at enterprises

Despite Acer berating Microsoft for its venture into the tablet space, Lenovo said it isn't fussed by it. In response, it dished out a brand new tablet: the ThinkPad Tablet 2, aimed for business and enterprise users.
Why is Lenovo content with the Surface, while Acer cries foul? Because Acer has a lot more to lose than PC market share leader Lenovo. And Acer should be worried.

In a nutshell (you probably don't need reminding): Microsoft's Surface tablet is the software company's first venture into the tablet market. Despite its "Microsoft" branding, it's likely that Asus is building the device, which has around 7 percent of the global PC building market share, according to IDC and Gartner.
Acer, which stands in fourth place behind HP -- which will soon be overtaken by Lenovo as the world leader in PC building -- Dell and Lenovo, kicked up a storm that Microsoft's Surface will push out its existing OEM partners.
But as ZDNet editor-in-chief Larry Dignan explained, Acer's position is "laughable" at best, and remarked that the PC ecosystem "needs some disruption."
The overall global PC market is stagnant and struggling to maintain healthy levels. Jefferies analyst warned earlier this year that PC unit sales could drop by as much as 10 percent in the third-quarter. Ouch.
Lenovo is in a strong position. Its rapid growth and targeted markets are lifting the company to the pole podium position in PC manufacturing. With close to 13 million shipments in the second quarter, the remaining PC makers are quaking in their boots.
Speaking to ABC News' Joanna Stern: "Microsoft is a strategic partner for us. The Surface has brought more excitement to the marketplace. The ThinkPad tablet is focused after the business individual; the Surface is more geared towards the consumer offering," said Dilip Bhatia, vice-president for Lenovo's ThinkPad business division.
(ZDNet's Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has more on the technical specs, and James Kendrick has the product image line-up. With the announcement comes two new ultrabooks -- ready for the enterprise.)
Of course, Lenovo isn't even remotely bothered by the Surface tablet; it's too high up in the chain for Microsoft to come close to touching it. Plus, the firm is working with Microsoft to get Windows 8 on the tablet in the first place.
Acer, further down the line, will see Surface as a direct competitor. It's a tale of two fronts: Microsoft is trying to get its software on as many tablets as it can, while OEMs like Acer and Lenovo want to sell as many tablets as they can, irrespective of software.
The trouble is, the operating system alone will sway the decision in what the business consumer wants.
Microsoft will likely see a similar market share figure to its Windows Phone platform: high enough to be in the top five manufacturers, but eclipsed in numbers by its competitors. Microsoft will will likely see a bump in Windows 8 on tablet shipments, and Lenovo will help with this -- just as Samsung helps Google in operating system market share by using Android, and vice-versa.
Microsoft is right to shake up the PC ecosystem. It's what it relies on. Surface isn't a threat to the PC ecosystem at all; it's a cleverly designed disruptor.

Microsoft bulking up on staff for next-gen Surface devices

Microsoft is already moving on to the next generation of Surface products, as its jobs postings make pretty clear.

Microsoft is bulking up design teams for next-gen Surface devices, despite the pleas of PC partners like Acer.
Acer recently asked Microsoft to reconsider its Surface strategy, but Redmond seems to be doing just the opposite, as dozens of job postings on its career page attest. Some of the job postings seem to imply that Surface products are the true expressions of Microsoft's vision.
"The Surface Team focuses on building devices that fully express the Windows vision," a few of the job listings say.

And that's the whole point of Surface, isn't it? Microsoft needed to build its own next-generation PC because it didn't see that vision being expressed properly by its hardware partners.
Other oft-repeated phrases in the job listings are: "We are currently building the next generation and Surface needs you!" and "you will bring next generation Surface to life."
And not-too-subtle hints are dropped about upcoming devices. "Responsible for investigating and developing new materials...to ensure successful launch of products that utilize new materials."

Samsung Galaxy Note 10.1 Takes a Stab at Tablet Multitasking

For tablets that want to compete with Apple’s iPad, proving superior at productivity is seen as a holy grail, and true multitasking is the key. If users can jump between apps with ease, the logic goes, the tablet might attract users who think the iPad is only good for consumption.
That’s why I’m suddenly interested in Samsung’s Galaxy Note 10.1, an Android-based tablet that launches later this month. Although Samsung first revealed the Galaxy Note 10.1 back in February, at the time it looked like a rehash of the company’s earlier 10-inch tablets, but with a stylus thrown in. Since then, Samsung has souped up the tablet’s specs to include a quad-core processor and 2 GB of RAM. More importantly, Samsung’s added some software features to help the new Note stand out.

As you can see in Samsung’s demo video, the Note 10.1 will let users run certain apps side-by-side on the screen, including the web browser, a note-taking app, an e-mail app, a video player and a document editor. As with Samsung’s earlier tablets, the Note 10.1 will also come with “mini-apps” such as a calculator and calendar, which can float on top of whatever else you’re doing.
Watching that video, I’m reminded of the aborted Microsoft project known as Courier, a stylus-driven, dual-touch screen device that was meant to be a digital sketchbook. Though Courier never escaped the prototype stage, it generated buzz in the tech world a couple years ago as a productive antidote to Apple’s consumption-minded iPad.
The iPad has proven to be a powerful content creation device in some ways, but its laser-focus on the single task can be limiting. Even basic Internet research gets frustrating on the iPad because you must jump back and forth from the browser to whatever app you’re using to take notes. Doing so requires you to double tap the home button, tap on the app you want to open and wait for the app-switching animation to play out, ad nauseum. Some third-party iPad apps such as Tapose and Blogsy try to solve this problem by mashing several functions into a single program, but none are as versatile as what Samsung has come up with.
Other platforms have tried to tackle multitasking in their own ways. Microsoft’s upcoming Windows 8, for instance, will let users snap a second app into a narrow sidebar on the left edge of the screen, so you can keep an eye on Twitter, e-mail or other programs while focusing mainly on a single app. RIM’s BlackBerry PlayBook and HP’s TouchPad–both commercial failures–allowed users to quickly swipe from one app to the next with a simple gesture. Samsung’s approach seems even faster for bouncing between tasks, with the downside that it’s limited to a handful of built-in apps.
I haven’t actually used the Galaxy Note 10.1, so for now I can’t say how its approach to multitasking works in practice. But I am interested to find out.

Acer's CEO Warns Microsoft To 'Think Twice' About Manufacturing The Surface Tablet

It was only a matter of time before one of Microsoft's manufacturing partners spoke up about the company's decision to go it alone in producing a tablet.

J.T. Wang, Acer's chairman and CEO told the Financial Times on Monday that he thinks Microsoft's Surface tablet will be "negative for the worldwide ecosystem" in computing.

Wang then explicitly warned Microsoft to "think twice" about manufacturing its own tablet.
“We have said [to Microsoft] think it over. Think twice," Wang said. "It will create a huge negative impact for the ecosystem and other brands may take a negative reaction. It is not something you are good at so please think twice.”
Microsoft, for its part, has admitted that its decision to produce its own tablet that competes with products made by its OEM partners might lead to some tension.
Acer, in particular, appears to be angry not just at the extra competition, but at being kept so completely out of the loop. According to a separate article in the Financial Times, Microsoft didn't tell Acer about the Surface until just before the public announcement and the company still hasn't let Acer know how much the tablet will sell for.

The next chapter in the ultrabook saga: 'Haswell'

Acer's first-generation Windows 8 touch-screen ultrabook. The second generation will likely feature Haswell chips. 

Ultrabooks are currently limping along on Windows 7, but Windows 8 and "Haswell" should put some spring in their step.
While Windows 8 is obviously a hot topic, less is being said about Haswell, Intel's next chip design that will underwrite the third stage of ultrabooks.
That's because Intel hasn't been talking about Haswell, except on the QT in NDA sessions in Asia this week.
Haswell is probably the first mainstream PC-class chip from Intel designed with really thin, small PCs in mind from the get-go. It will also probably pack a mean graphics punch (i.e., bigger performance uptick than usual).
But not a whole lot more is known about the new microarchitecture.
Until Haswell arrives, the first generation of Windows 8 touch-screen ultrabooks from companies like Acer and Lenovo will use Ivy Bridge processors. But the real deal (that is, more affordable touch-screen models) won't land until 2013 with Haswell.
And note that Microsoft won't bring out its Intel-based Windows Pro tablet until the end of January (or thereabouts). Is it waiting for Haswell? Either way, Haswell would make for a solid second-generation Surface Pro tablet.

Microsoft hits RTM milestone with Windows 8

Microsoft announced on August 1 that Windows 8 has been released to manufacturing (RTM'd). (The final build number is 9200.)

At the same time, Microsoft's Internet Explorer 10, Windows Server 2012 and Visual Studio 2012 also have reached the RTM milestone, given all of these products have been developed in lockstep with Windows 8. (I am not 100 percent sure if Windows RT also RTM'd simultaneously and do not believe Microsoft officials ever promised this would be the case.)
Microsoft officials said earlier this month to expect Windows 8 to RTM in the first week of August. (I modified this wording in my coverage to "by the first week of August," knowing the propensity of Windows execs to pad their dates a bit in order to never be late.) As those same execs also noted previously, Windows 8 will be generally available via retail and preloaded on new PCs and tablets on October 26.
However, some will be able to get their hands on the Windows 8 RTM bits a lot sooner. MSDN and TechNet subscribers get the bits on August 15. Volume licenses with Software Assurance will get it on August 16; volume licensees without SA will get the bits September 1, according to a Windows Team blog post today.
Last week, Microsoft went public with details about its next big Windows developer conference. Build 2012 will be held October 30 to November 2 in Redmond, Wash.
Microsoft execs said in September 2011 that there would be one public developer test build of Windows 8 (which came to be known as the Developer Preview), one public "beta" (the Consumer Preview) and one public Release Candidate (the Release Preview). There were additional private builds of Windows 8 that went to a select few outside the company. But after the Release Candidate -- which Microsoft made available at the end of May 2012 -- there were no more public test  builds of Windows 8 scheduled before the product is released to manufacturing (RTM). Recent private builds included a number of user interface modifications, the removal of the "Aero" glass interface, as well as some under-the-hood programming interface tweaks.
Now that Microsoft has completed work on Windows 8, the product goes to PC makers (which also includes Microsoft itself). The PC makers do testing, finish any kind of compatibility work they need to achieve and preload images the operating system on new PCs. The Microsoft Surface team is one of these OEMs and will be delivering the first of two Surface designs (the Surface RT, based on an ARM processor) at the same time as Windows 8 is generally available, October 26.
What's next for Windows? Microsoft is expected by some to speed up delivery of its next operating system releases, going forward. In other words, "Windows Next" -- or whatever Microsoft calls the successor to Windows 8 -- isn't expected to be three years away. It could be a lot sooner.

Sony Xperia Tablet leaked from internal slides: Surface-style keyboard and tentative $450 price tagSony Xperia Tablet leaked from internal slides Surfacestyle keyboard and tentative $450 price tag Sony's next-generation tablet appears to have leaked on internal slides spotted by German news site, Mobiflip. In short, it's thinner and lighter than the Tablet S, while internal specifications also trump it, including a Tegra 3 quad-core processor, Android 4.0 ("or later"), 3G connectivity and three storage options; 16, 32 and 64GB. The whole tablet follows the same folded magazine design of Sony's existing tablet, is splashproof and houses a 6,000mAh battery that the slides suggest will manage 10 hours of WiFi-based web browsing. There's even some tentative pricing, with the different-sized models marked up at $450, $550 and $650, respectively. The pictures also cover Sony's plans to add a lightweight keyboard to its next tablet, similar to Microsoft's Surface plans, but with some Smart Cover-esque kickstand skills thrown in for good measure. We've added a shot of the keyboard cover after the break, but you can take a tour of the rest of the slides -- which include a raft of accessories and docks -- at the source link below. Update: We've been in touch with a Sony spokesperson, who had "no comment at this stage." We may have to wait until next month, when European trade show IFA kicks off -- with Sony in attendance -- until we hear anything more concrete. Sony Xperia Tablet leaked from internal slides Surfacestyle keyboard and quadcore processor

Sony's next-generation tablet appears to have leaked on internal slides spotted by German news site, Mobiflip. In short, it's thinner and lighter than the Tablet S, while internal specifications also trump it, including a Tegra 3 quad-core processor, Android 4.0 ("or later"), 3G connectivity and three storage options; 16, 32 and 64GB. The whole tablet follows the same folded magazine design of Sony's existing tablet, is splashproof and houses a 6,000mAh battery that the slides suggest will manage 10 hours of WiFi-based web browsing. There's even some tentative pricing, with the different-sized models marked up at $450, $550 and $650, respectively. The pictures also cover Sony's plans to add a lightweight keyboard to its next tablet, similar to Microsoft's Surface plans, but with some Smart Cover-esque kickstand skills thrown in for good measure. We've added a shot of the keyboard cover after the break, but you can take a tour of the rest of the slides -- which include a raft of accessories and docks -- at the source link below.
Update: We've been in touch with a Sony spokesperson, who had "no comment at this stage." We may have to wait until next month, when European trade show IFA kicks off -- with Sony in attendance -- until we hear anything more concrete.

The 8 Things That Scare Microsoft

Microsoft is in the midst of a major overhaul.
It's building its own tablets, risking its relationships with device makers. Its plan to hurt Google with Bing hasn't worked. It's still struggling to get people to love its phones.
Its most recent quarterly report plainly spelled out its biggest threats.
Microsoft has a lot of opportunities, and it's talked plenty about those. But here's what the software giant should worry about—straight from its own mouth.

1. It's not just about software. It's about the cloud!

Microsoft really wants you to know that it's a player as software goes online—"in the cloud," in industryspeak.
It names six cloud platforms: Office 365, Xbox LIVE, Dynamics CRM Online (a Salesforce.com competitor), Bing, Skype, Azure (which competes with Amazon Web Services), plus some other minor services (like Microsoft Intune).
But it worries that its cloud products might not be as popular as its PC software products:
"While we believe our expertise, investments in infrastructure, and the breadth of our cloud-based services provide us with a strong foundation to compete, it is uncertain whether our strategies will attract the users or generate the revenue required to be successful."

Upside: Microsoft is making a lot of smart investments in its cloud. It opened Azure to Linux. It is letting Skype run as its own unit, maintaining support of Android and iOS and so on.

2. The two companies Microsoft fears most: Apple and Google.

Windows is still at the center of Microsoft and Windows now has more competition than ever:
"The Windows operating system faces competition from various commercial software products and from alternative platforms and devices, mainly from Apple and Google."

Upside: Microsoft's enterprise customers are in no hurry to ditch Windows PCs for Macs or iPads or Android tablets. A large portion are only now upgrading to Windows 7. Microsoft has some time to get Windows 8 fine-tuned before it risks losing these critical customers.

3. In the enterprise Microsoft has a LOT of competition.

Microsoft spent years trying to build high-end software for data centers. 
Microsoft named Hewlett-Packard as a competitor twice. It named IBM 10 times. It named Oracle 9 times. All three make integrated hardware and software. Oracle and IBM also offer a lot of business software that competes with Microsoft.
But Microsoft is also wary of CA Technologies, VMware, Adobe, Cisco, and SAP as competitors with its business software products. Even Intel got a mention, for competing with Microsoft's embedded systems products. Microsoft also named Linux at least a half a dozen times and Red Hat once.

Upside: As long as enterprises still want Windows devices, they will keep buying Windows Server and software that runs on it and manages it, which is its biggest, healthiest business right now. And Microsoft is the lower-cost option in some areas like databases.

4. Microsoft sees Apple and Google as threats to Xbox.

Microsoft warns, "In addition to Nintendo and Sony, our businesses compete with both Apple and Google in offering content products and services to the consumer." 
Neither Apple nor Google make gaming consoles, but they both make devices that let you stream entertainment to your TV.  Xbox is Microsoft's video-game console—which is also the company's best bet on the online-entertainment business.

Upside: Xbox Kinect made Microsoft cool again. An Xbox console is an affordable option compared to a lot of other Internet-connected set-top boxes which can't even play games.

 

5. IBM is a love/hate relationship.

Despite naming IBM as a competitor 10 times over, Microsoft is relying on IBM as a single-source supplier for chips for some of its hardware products like Xbox 360 and Kinect.
It's buying all of its RAM from one supplier, too—Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. It will do the same for its Surface tablets. "Sole source suppliers also will produce key components of our Surface devices."

Upside: By giving all of its business to single-source suppliers, Microsoft gives itself a lot of leverage with them, even though it risks inventory supply if these vendors experience problems. 

6. The popularity of non-Windows smartphones and tablets could lure away developers.

Microsoft knows that all of its big plans rests on cool software. It needs lots of developers to write apps for Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8, which they won't do unless they think lots of people will buy those devices.
"Users may increasingly turn to these devices to perform functions that would have been performed by personal computers in the past. Even if many users view these devices as complementary to a personal computer, the prevalence of these devices may make it more difficult to attract applications developers to our platforms."

Upside: Microsoft has plenty of cash and in-house developers. It already owns wildly popular software like Microsoft Office and Halo. It can grease the wheels all on its own.

7. All this new stuff could succeed but will still erode margins.

Microsoft warns, "New products and services may not be profitable, and even if they are profitable, operating margins for new products and businesses may not be as high as the margins we have experienced historically."

Upside: Microsoft has one of the biggest R&D labs in the world. In its fiscal 2012, 2011, and 2010, it spent $9.8 billion, $9.0 billion, and $8.7 billion, respectively. Microsoft has enough cash to alter its businesses AND try and find the next big thing.

8. Everyone might hate Windows 8.

Steve Kovach, Business Insider

Windows 8 is such a big change that people may opt to leave Windows altogether.
Microsoft warns, "In fall 2012, we are launching Windows 8, a major new release of our PC operating system that seeks to deliver a unique user experience through well-integrated software, hardware, and services. Success depends on a number of factors including the extent to which customers embrace its new user interface and functionality, successfully coordinating with our OEM partners in releasing a variety of hardware devices that take advantage of its features, and attracting developers at scale to ensure a competitive array of quality applications."

Upside: The only true alternative to Windows 8 is a Mac. But most Windows 7 apps will run on Windows 8. That will probably be good enough to keep millions of Windows users happy and willing to grow through a Windows 8 learning curve.

Surface to arrive with Windows 8 on October 26, says Microsoft

Microsoft Surface: shown here with the accompanying 3mm-thick, pressure sensitive cover that doubles as a keyboard and trackpad.

(Credit: Microsoft)

Though it's not exactly an earth-shattering revelation, Microsoft has confirmed that Surface tablets will arrive October 26 along with Windows 8.
"The next version of our operating system, Windows 8, will be generally available on October 26, 2012. At that time, we will begin selling the Surface, a series of Microsoft-designed and manufactured hardware devices," Microsoft said in its annual report filed this week with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Microsoft has said before that Surface products "would be available the same time that Windows 8" was launched, but it's reassuring to see the date in writing.
And, remember, those are Windows RT tablets only. The Intel-based Surface Pro is expected about 90 days later, according to Microsoft.
Microsoft has also peppered disclaimers throughout the annual report (these appear often in SEC filings) about the success, or lack thereof, of Windows 8.

In fall 2012, we are launching Windows 8...Its success depends on a number of factors including the extent to which customers embrace its new user interface and functionality, successfully coordinating with our OEM partners in releasing a variety of hardware devices that take advantage of its features, and attracting developers at scale to ensure a competitive array of quality applications. We expect to incur substantial marketing costs in launching Window 8 and associated services and devices, which may reduce our operating margins."

That last part about "may reduce operating margins" is something Wall Street will of course be watching closely. In short, if Windows 8 is not relatively successful, this may fuel doubts about Microsoft's viability in the age of the iPad and Android.
The Surface products will be offered in basically two forms. One is expected to be a more price-friendly version running Windows RT on top of ARM chips. The other, likely a bit pricier, will run Windows 8 Pro on top of Intel "Ivy Bridge" processors.
And pricing? While there's a lot of whacky speculation about sky-high pricing, Microsoft's own guidance portends a more rational pricing scheme.
"Suggested retail pricing will be announced closer to availability and is expected to be competitive with a comparable ARM tablet or Intel Ultrabook-class PC," Microsoft said in a statement.
Based on that statement, a back-of-the-envelope estimate could put -- the operative word here is "could" as this is simply speculation -- Windows RT products as low as $500-$600 and Windows 8 Pro Intel-based products ranging up to $1,000, or possibly higher.
That said, Microsoft's pricing plans are undoubtedly in a state of flux, and we won't know until the company tells us.

Microsoft hopes new tablet will cure falling PC sales

Can anything bring the PC business back to life? Tallying up worldwide PC shipment calculations by the research companies Gartner and IDC, together with the revenue and profit figures from Microsoft, and Apple's computer sales numbers, it's clear that the Windows PC business is having a lousy time.
Even Apple is hardly thriving; its computer shipments grew by just 1.8% on the previous year. Even so, it continued Apple's run, now 25 quarters long, of growing faster than the Windows PC business, which showed a very slight drop, down by 0.2% according to Gartner and IDC.
There are three possible explanations for this: people are waiting for Microsoft to release Windows 8 in October (as Microsoft has said it will); people are buying tablets instead of PCs; or people are so gloomy about the whole economic picture that they're putting off purchases.
Figuring out the answer is essential to the long-term survival of Microsoft (the vast majority of whose profits come from Windows and Office licences) and to companies such as Dell and other PC makers that haven't managed to make the transition to the mobile world. After all, if this is just a passing economic storm, things should improve and so should Michael Dell's smile. But if not…?
First, is the prospect of Windows 8 really slowing down sales? Probably not. I've looked at quarterly PC sales figures going back to the start of 1998 and while there is always a lull before such releases, Microsoft times new versions of Windows to come out before Christmas – to ride the marketing wave with consumers, who have in the past bought around half of all PCs. New Windows releases get plenty of build-up and businesses know they're coming. So they don't really affect business sales and there don't seem to be that many consumers who hold off buying at those times.
Which leaves us with two other potential culprits for the PC's decline: tablet sales or the gloomy world outlook, where the US and European economies are mired in jobless recoveries, or just plain old recessions.
Let's take the second first. I compared the OECD's figures for the G20 economies' growth from 1998 to the start of 2012 with PC sales growth. Similarities? There are some – PC sales dipped like mad in 2001 as the US slid into recession, even though the Far East kept growth going; that's because most PC sales then were in the west.
Since then, there's been the Lehmans-inspired crash of 2008, which pushed PC sales into negative territory, but since then, the G20's GDP has been fairly positive. PC sales growth, though, has been trending down far faster than GDP growth for the past eight quarters. And it has never done that before. Usually, over that 14-year span, PC shipment growth has been above the GDP trend. That means there must be something else at work. Eight quarters of downward trend takes us back to April 2010 – when Apple launched the iPad. So where has the PC growth gone? Mostly into Apple's coffers, where in the last quarter it sold 17m iPads – 68% of the worldwide tablet market.
Sure, not every one of those iPads is a lost PC sale. But you have to suspect that it's making a substantial difference. If you buy an iPad (or a Google Nexus 7, as a lot of people are presently doing) that's money you don't have to spend on a PC. Add up the money spent on tablets and consider that it could have gone on PCs and you realise why Microsoft announced in June that it was to sell its own tablet, the Surface, running Windows 8, available some time before Christmas. The Surface and its brethren might do just as well as the iPad.
We're choosing tablets because more and more we want to do things – well, computing things – on the move. I see people pull out tablets in situations where they wouldn't pull out a laptop: a commuter waiting on a platform for a train, a mother giving her child something to play with, a business person handing a demonstration around in a meeting. Computing has changed from being something you go to a computer to do to something that the computer comes with you to do. It's a subtle change, but world-altering for PC makers.
To a large extent, people who buy the iPad over other devices don't care whether it's a "walled garden" controlled by Apple and they don't care about the fights that go on between Apple and Android fans. They like the mobility. So the Surface might be a hit (depending on price) – if it offers Windows with extra mobility.
Which only leaves one tricky question: is the Surface a tablet or a PC? That's one where the teams at Gartner and IDC go quiet. It looks like a tablet, but it runs Windows, which is the desktop operating system. Maybe the way to get the PC market to grow again is by redefining other stuff as a PC too. The only problem then is that it might require including the iPad. If that happens, Apple becomes the world's largest PC manufacturer. And I don't think Microsoft would like that. It's going to be a long summer.

Microsoft Surface: Don't believe every price you see

Here's what we know about the Microsoft Surface so far for sure: Microsoft has designed the product. There will be two versions: One based on ARM and one on Intel. There will be covers that double as keyboards. And the Windows RT ARM-based one will be available on or around October 26, the date when Windows 8 is generally available.

The list of what we don't know is much longer. At the top of that list is battery life and pricing. And despite the publication by a Swedish retail site of supposed list prices for Surface this week, we still do not know Microsoft's planned pricing for these devices, beyond the vague guidelines company officials provided in June (that they will be in line with comparable products in the ARM tablet and Intel ultrabook arenas).

TechieBuzz got the Swedish site, Webhallen, to admit that the 32 GB Surface price of about $1,000-plus listed on its site was just a made-up number. Here's what Webhallen told reporter Paul Paliath:

"Our customers are very interested in pre-ordering these products, so we have set a high preliminary pricing for the lineup so that they may be able to pre-order them.

"Just to clarify, we have not recieved any pricing from Microsoft regarding MRSP or purchasing net cost, and any people who have booked the Surface at this high price will of course have their order adjusted before any product is shipped. So we’re not going to overcharge anyone for being an early adopter."

All we know for a fact about Microsoft's Surface distribution plans is that Microsoft will sell the Surfaces at its two-dozen (so far) Microsoft brick-and-mortar stores, plus via select Microsoft online stores. CEO Steve Ballmer told CRN earlier this month that any resellers or others who want to offer the Surface to their customers will have to buy the products from Microsoft (at the stores or online) and then make them available to their customers.
I heard from one of my readers this week that Microsoft may be distributing a few Surfaces to a few key developers to get them excited about the product. But I heard from another reader that the Surfaces are on total lockdown and Microsoft didn't allow any non-Microsoft employees to see or use Surfaces at recent Microsoft events, including its partner show and the MGX sales conference last week.
I asked Microsoft if anyone outside the company has been supplied with demo units and/or are allowed to preorder the devices at this point and received a no comment from a spokesperson.

Microsoft to Windows RT OEMs 'If your name's not on the list, you're not making a tablet'

China Times is reporting that Microsoft is only letting an elite few companies build Windows RT tablets in order to focus its research and development resources. It asked three chipmakers to pick up to two OEMs to bring inside the tent, with NVIDIA grabbing ASUS and Lenovo, TI snagging Toshiba and Qualcomm selecting Samsung and HP. However, the latter company dropped out of the program to concentrate on x86 machines, so Dell's currently jockeying to take its place. The first wave of completed tablets will arrive on October 26th, and Redmond won't open up the market until January next year -- so expect Windows RT to be the buzz-word CES 2013.